Much of Mr. Kagan's analysis is correct; however, he still wears the "blinders" of the William Kristol group, and the world-view he is associated with. I will not demean them by referring to them as "neo-cons"--as their opponents do. I think their hearts are in the right place, and that their love for America, and its freedoms, cannot be questioned. However, I feel that Mr. Kagan's analysis over-emphasizes Russia's resources, and its competencies. I think Vladimir Putin is an amazing, and very dangerous leader, and that we should never, ever, take him for granted; however, he rules a dying, tragic Russia, more likely to be engulfed in an Islamic wave than to cause serious problems for the West.



Still, Russia is a great, wounded lion, and it can always decide to take down America with it, in a Slavic version of "Goetterdammerung".



China is as much a foreigner in the Middle East as we are, and, although it has proven itself infinitely more skillful diplomatically than America has (big surprise there, hah!), it still has several enormous--and potentially, insurmountable---problems: first, in its west, it has large muslim provinces that are at various stages of boiling over into open successionist war---how will its killing those people---as it murdered the Tibetans just before the Olympics---look to its muslim prospective oil-generating "partners"? Second, India is its traditional rival--and has fought two losing wars already with China (neither of which India should have lost if it had just used its best (non-politically-connected)officers (India has the best trained large army (and navy) in the world). India must of course oppose further Chinese influence in the region, and must of course oppose any attempts by China to strengthen the already strong muslim influence in the area. A reminder: by 2030, India will be the largest nation in the history of the world.



Then there is Iran; and Israel. These two countries are the monkey-wrenches in the equation. The arab countries would be no real threat to Israel without the money pouring in to them from Iran---which is NOT an arab country! on the other hand, Israel would have had to come to some kind of realistic accommodation with its neighbors were it not for the financial and military support from America.



So, at the end of the day, we now have this crazy situation where the tensions between "Jew" and "Arab" are only being exacerbated by the constant funding (and meddling) by non-Jewish America, and non-Arab Iran! As we say in my homeland (Brooklyn): verkokte!



Still, at least Mr. Kagan deals cogently with the complex Middle East---as opposed to Breszinski's latest drivel.